The Trump Shooting One Week On: Checking Out The Story
So far I see nothing conclusive that this is anything other than what it seems to be. But here are some things to check out thoroughly
Sneaking this in before Biden steals all the headlines by quitting:
Now that we’ve processed the shock of Donald Trump’s narrow escape last Saturday in Butler PA, there’s a lot to wonder about. Hyper-partisans on both sides blared conspiracy theories within minutes. Those who view politics more objectively must be wondering whether it’s OK to question the still-skeletal official narrative. The partisan screams may deter them, and they may settle on the usual soothing nostrums about conspiracy theorists’ psychological deficiencies.
Speaking as someone who’s done my share of assassination research (like this and this), I can tell you it’s very much OK and healthy to take our own look at the facts and assess the evidence. Indeed it’s our responsibility as citizens: why would the government be any better at investigating than at protecting candidates? It’s near certain that, at a minimum, there will be cover-ups of incompetence to unravel—and conceivably, something worse. So far I see nothing conclusive that this is anything other than what it seems to be, namely a disturbed young man and law-enforcement bungling. But here are some things to check out thoroughly before we can confidently file this away as a random act with no greater significance.
1. Angle of the shots: This schematic shows that the shooter’s rooftop was to Trump’s right, at about his 2 o’clock. If Trump were looking straight ahead, a bullet couldn’t clip his ear without then striking his head. Video seems to show he had, very luckily, turned to his right and leaned forward, drawing attention to a video display on that side. Let’s make sure that angle works out. Also, I don’t believe an AR-15 bullet struck his ear squarely—it would have taken the whole ear off. It must have barely nicked it, or else the ear’s skin was torn by the wind shear of a very near miss. Let’s confirm that the medical evidence supports this. I’d be loath to suggest that this was faked with some sort of exploding-paintball stunt, but we should keep an open mind till all the facts line up.
2. Those hit, tragically, in the audience were also at Trump’s 2 o’clock, between him and the shooter, though slightly off line. Let’s look at the height of their position in relation to Trump’s and the shooter’s, to make sure it all lines up. It looks like the grandstands behind and beside the speaking platform rose higher than the platform; if so, the trajectories could line up OK. If not, it would have to have been a wild shot that hit them—very possible if the shooter was firing in haste, expecting return fire any second—or else a shot from a different trajectory.
3. Obviously, we have to know for sure why the Secret Service and/or local police left the rooftop and access to it unguarded. There must be a written order of the day for the division of security responsibilities between locals and SS that would clarify whose job this was. Also, why didn’t the cops respond faster to onlookers’ warning shouts that they’d spotted a gunman? I can believe that cops are habitually so disdainful of civilians that they would ignore such warnings for a while. Let’s make sure it was nothing more than that.
4. How did Thomas Crooks know the rooftop would be unguarded? Did he arrive early and scout around? (Important to determine when he got there and what he did.) But if so, how did he know to bring a ladder? Was it just a good guess that he’d need some sort of elevated position? And how did he conceal his rifle while wandering around just outside a heavily guarded venue?
5. According to reports so far, there was no emergency alert on the local police’s or Secret Service’s comms before the shooting—not when they (eventually) started checking out a possible shooter, nor even after a local-police officer clambered up to gutter level and spotted the rifleman, who turned and aimed at him, causing him to drop off in self-preservation but not to radio an alert. Why didn’t those cops send a flash around the security team that they were responding to reports of a rifleman on the roof?
6. Crooks, according to a classmate, was too poor a shot to be allowed on the school shooting team. A stationary target at 130 yards is a straightforward shot for a competent shooter, but not a gimme. Missing a small target (a head) by only a couple inches at that range is a good competent shot. On the other hand, no shot is easy for an incompetent. Where’d Crooks get the necessary training? YouTube self-tutorials? And where did he put in the necessary time on the range?
7. His father’s reaction (trying to figure out “what the hell is going on”) doesn’t sound like the shock of someone who’s just learned his son’s been killed after killing someone; it sounds more like he thinks this information can’t be right. Could just be an off-key reaction of shock, but it merits some follow-up.
8. Praise to AP photographer Evan Vucci for alertly capturing a great photo. (I confess I tend to wish he’d deleted it, since it would clearly be used propagandistically and maybe violently.) Just to leave no stone unturned, he’d best be asked under oath to assure us that no one told him to be ready for a dramatic shot, and to be sure to get the flag in.
9. Do we believe Trump is the kind of guy who would take the time to grope for his shoes and then pose for a photo at a moment when, for all he knew, someone was about to launch a bazooka at him? Maybe; he might just have the quick wits, political acumen and physical bravery to risk his life for the photo op of his dreams. And we believe that the Secret Service would let him linger there that long? Maybe. If the SS were supposed to protect me, I would hope they’d shove me right off the stage in that situation, no matter how much I sputtered about shoes and photos.
These should be most of the issues to nail down. I do think it behooves us to take a good, close, judicious look at everything to do with this, and to give no automatic credence to whatever official story emerges. But by the same token, no jumping to conclusions. Although the immediate partisan screaming is distressing (and it’s understandably loudest from the side of the guy who almost got killed), I can’t condemn people for doubting official stories and taking their own look at the facts. But judiciousness is likely to be in short supply. Hence this column. Americans badly need some common ground, and a good dispassionate analysis of this could be a place to start. How about a citizens’ commission to investigate the thing—four partisans from each side, who then agree on three additional neutral members?
A few last thoughts: if there is a story behind the default scenario of a disturbed lone gunman, it’s likely to be something more oblique than Biden’s people and/or the Deep State wanting rid of Trump, or Trump staging it to look heroic and persecuted.
Let’s bear in mind that the ideology of the shooter, if it ever emerges, is of limited importance. Although one side will doubtless use it as a stick to beat the other, it says next to nothing about a political ideology or movement that a disturbed person acted on an irrational understanding of it.
Almost any idiot can fabricate a deep fake now. Take your time and triangulate before believing what you see. If it seems to be unambiguous, dead-giveaway, smoking-gun evidence (like “I HAD him in my sights! But they ORDERED me not to shoot!”), the chances of it being fake are higher.
Trump diehards seem not to have figured out that if something like the ‘deep state’ were to try to eliminate him, they’d make sure they got it right, because they’d know surviving an assassination attempt would only strengthen him. (Unless they figured that a dire warning would serve their purposes just as well.) They also wouldn’t use a shooter who got cut from the school shooting team, which is one reason why it’s important to make sure all the shots came from him.
Lastly, I can’t help pointing out that Trump had the chance to release all those JFK files. Bet he now wishes he had.